Next Generation EU: a time-bomb, or a new lease of life?Understanding the EU recovery plan in 5 questions

Next Generation EU: a time-bomb, or a new lease of life?Understanding the EU recovery plan in 5 questions

Posted by | 10 Mar 2021 | , , , , , | 0 |

The European recovery plan, named Next Generation EU, was launched in the heart of the pandemic crisis that began in early 2020. This recovery plan truly represents a project of unprecedented scale in the European construction history. But the EU is a complex thing, difficult to grasp for the uninitiated as the institutional mechanism is so difficult to understand. This recovery plan can be a cornerstone for the future of the European, but can also become the painful indicator of the institutional dysfunctions of the EU. 1. Next Generation EU, what does it mean? Next Generation EU is intended...

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L’appauvrissement des classes moyennes: un facteur explicatif des crises financières

L’appauvrissement des classes moyennes: un facteur explicatif des crises financières

Posted by | 18 Jan 2021 | , | 0 |

Comme l’a rappelé la crise des subprimes, le crédit aux ménages apparaît comme l’élément moteur des crises financières (Schularick et al., 2012 ; Jorda et al., 2015). A cet égard, différents courants de la recherche universitaire en économie mettent en avant les inégalités de revenus comme déterminant de l’endettement des ménages, soulignant chacun un lien de causalité particulier. Parmi les principaux mécanismes à l’œuvre : Côté offre, les ménages les plus aisés, enrichis davantage encore par la hausse des inégalités de revenu, cherchent à valoriser leur surcroît d’épargne en la prêtant aux ménages des classes moyennes et modestes (voir Kumhof, Rancière et...

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Towards a More Resilient European Union after the COVID-19 Crisis

Towards a More Resilient European Union after the COVID-19 Crisis

Posted by | 20 Août 2020 | | 0 |

The pandemic crisis constitutes an unprecedented challenge for the European Union and for the Euro Area. Indeed, European institutional architecture can be viewed as being half-way between an association of sovereign states (like the United Nations, for example) and a politically integrated federation (like the United States for example). In this original construction, competences on several matters (such as economic, political, social and health issues, etc.) are shared at the European level, but also at the national and local levels in more complex ways than in fully integrated federations. To improve the resilience of the European Union to violent external shocks, the main objective of this paper...

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Covid-19 : quelles conséquences et quelles politiques économiques ?

Covid-19 : quelles conséquences et quelles politiques économiques ?

Posted by | 30 Avr 2020 | , | 0 |

Covid-19 : Analyse des conséquences économiques La crise sanitaire que nous traversons est sans aucun doute la plus rude depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, mettant à l’épreuve l’ensemble des économies de la planète. Il est bien entendu difficile d’analyser et d’annoncer clairement ce à quoi le monde fera face.  De nombreux chercheurs sont mobilisés sur ce choc mondial et les hypothèses, prévisions ou propositions sont très nombreuses.  Les économistes d’ERMEES (Equipe de Recherche en Macro-Economie Européenne de Strasbourg) proposent d’alimenter ce débat, et de vulgariser les enjeux économiques de cette crise sanitaire. La présentation de ce dossier s’articule de la manière suivante : elle débute par...

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Europe’s Hamiltonian moment… Again

Europe’s Hamiltonian moment… Again

Posted by | 28 Avr 2020 | , | 0 |

In these dark times of ’Coronacoma’ for the World Economy, the European Monetary Union is on the brink…Again. This time, it could be truly different. Countries opposed to any kind of debt mutualization properly ordered hinder de facto the achievement of a federal leap that it is desperately needed to complete the monetary union. Without this giant leap, there are real risks of implosion for the eurozone and, even, the whole EU. This brief note tries to explain why the US historical experience could be inspiring for Europeans in a situation where the concept of radical uncertainty is especially...

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The long-term growth impact of the pandemic

The long-term growth impact of the pandemic

Posted by | 26 Avr 2020 | , , | 0 |

The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are devastating worldwide. The IMF is projecting that the world economy will contract by 3% in 2020, before rebounding by 5.8% in 2021. The V-shaped recovery is predicated on the pandemic receding in the second half of 2020. A U-shaped scenario, with a prolonged recession, is also possible if the pandemic lingers, or if the recession triggers banking and/or sovereign debt crises. Will GDP growth get back to its pre-crisis trend in the aftermath the pandemic? Is an L-shaped scenario likely, with a permanent decline in the growth rate? Uncertainty surrounding the...

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Joint liability bonds for a joint European defense against the pandemic

Joint liability bonds for a joint European defense against the pandemic

Posted by | 6 Avr 2020 | , , | 0 |

The problem Mitigating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will require a significant increase in public spending to rescue sinking economies and further shield health systems. At the same time, tax revenues will be collapsing as long as economic activity remains suppressed. Budget deficits will inevitably swell, leading to soaring public debt. Eurozone countries – such as Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain – that have already suffered the effects of the sovereign debt crisis – and their debt remains high – will be hit particularly hard. The increase in debt will call into question its sustainability, posing the risk...

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The European response to the epidemic

The European response to the epidemic

Posted by | 29 Mar 2020 | | 0 |

Germany shut down its borders with France, Denmark, Austria and Luxembourg in an effort to curb the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic at home. Spain and other European Union countries are doing the same. The closure of the Schengen border raises more barriers to individual movements within the EU.  Closing the borders is an impulsive response to the crisis. It is perhaps understandable in an emergency, when national governments are responsible for protecting the population, in the absence of a common health policy in Europe. But it promotes an inward-looking attitude that does not facilitate the coordination of actions...

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