Catégorie : Croissance

Next Generation EU: a time-bomb, or a new lease of life?Understanding the EU recovery plan in 5 questions

The European recovery plan, named Next Generation EU, was launched in the heart of the pandemic crisis that began in early 2020. This recovery plan truly represents a project of unprecedented scale in the European construction history. But the EU is a complex thing, difficult to grasp for the uninitiated as the institutional mechanism is so difficult to understand. This recovery plan can be a cornerstone for the future of the European, but can also become the painful indicator of the institutional dysfunctions of the EU. 1. Next Generation EU, what does it mean? Next Generation EU is intended...

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The long-term growth impact of the pandemic

The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are devastating worldwide. The IMF is projecting that the world economy will contract by 3% in 2020, before rebounding by 5.8% in 2021. The V-shaped recovery is predicated on the pandemic receding in the second half of 2020. A U-shaped scenario, with a prolonged recession, is also possible if the pandemic lingers, or if the recession triggers banking and/or sovereign debt crises. Will GDP growth get back to its pre-crisis trend in the aftermath the pandemic? Is an L-shaped scenario likely, with a permanent decline in the growth rate? Uncertainty surrounding the...

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