The long-term growth impact of the pandemic

The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are devastating worldwide. The IMF is projecting that the world economy will contract by 3% in 2020, before rebounding by 5.8% in 2021. The V-shaped recovery is predicated on the pandemic receding in the second half of 2020. A U-shaped scenario, with a prolonged recession, is also possible if the pandemic lingers, or if the recession triggers banking and/or sovereign debt crises. Will GDP growth get back to its pre-crisis trend in the aftermath the pandemic? Is an L-shaped scenario likely, with a permanent decline in the growth rate? Uncertainty surrounding the...

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Joint liability bonds for a joint European defense against the pandemic

The problem Mitigating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will require a significant increase in public spending to rescue sinking economies and further shield health systems. At the same time, tax revenues will be collapsing as long as economic activity remains suppressed. Budget deficits will inevitably swell, leading to soaring public debt. Eurozone countries – such as Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain – that have already suffered the effects of the sovereign debt crisis – and their debt remains high – will be hit particularly hard. The increase in debt will call into question its sustainability, posing the risk...

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The European response to the epidemic

Germany shut down its borders with France, Denmark, Austria and Luxembourg in an effort to curb the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic at home. Spain and other European Union countries are doing the same. The closure of the Schengen border raises more barriers to individual movements within the EU.  Closing the borders is an impulsive response to the crisis. It is perhaps understandable in an emergency, when national governments are responsible for protecting the population, in the absence of a common health policy in Europe. But it promotes an inward-looking attitude that does not facilitate the coordination of actions...

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Workshop 3rd ERMEES Macroeconomics Workshop 2019 “20 Years of the Euro :Paths for the Future ?” Friday December 13, 2019, Strasbourg The University of Strasbourg, the Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée and the ERMEES research team are delighted to announce a one-day macroeconomics workshop to be held on Friday December 13, 2019 in Strasbourg. The main purpose of this workshop is to produce high quality debates to learn from past experience and draw some perspectives for a better future in the Eurozone. We invite paper submission on various topics; both empirical and theoretical papers are welcome. Paper topics include: Monetary policy,...

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June 27th, 2017 – Year end meeting ERMEES

At the end of the academic year 2016-2017, ERMEES team gathered around a picnic at the “Parc de l’Orangerie in Strasbourg” to discuss what happened during the year, and to launch projects for next academic year. See also the library:

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March 31th, 2017 – Christophe BLOT

Christophe Blot is Deputy Director of the Analysis and Forecasting Department at the OFCE (Paris) and a macroeconomist specializing in issues related to  effectiveness of economic policies, economic integration and globalization. He presented his latest paper, co-authored with Paul Hubert and Fabien Labondance, entitled “Does Monetary Policy Generate Asset Price Booms and Busts?”. See also the library...

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march 28th, 2017 – Round table on Universal Minimum Income

Universal income was brought to the forefront by debates around the French presidential election. To  gather all the knowledge in economics on this topic, ERMEES organizes round table to raise key questions: what are the different conceptions of universal income? What is the link between universal income and idleness? between universal income and labor productivity? between universal income and education? What impact on wages? On employment? On public...

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